Modelling Technological Changes, and Student Switching Behaviour of Selected Private University Students in a Developing Economy
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Abstract
This study examines the influence of technological changes on student loyalty and switching behaviour in selected private universities in Southwest Nigeria, where differences in technological infrastructure and students' adaptability to technological innovations complicate the prediction of student loyalty and retention. The study aims to model and analyse the influence of technological changes on student switching behaviour and loyalty using Markov Chain analysis and to provide quantitative evidence that university administrators can apply to improve student retention and institutional competitiveness. A quantitative research design was adopted, and data were collected through structured questionnaires administered to 464 final-year students from three selected private universities in Southwest Nigeria. A total of 455 valid responses were analysed using Markov Chain transition probability matrices to model students' loyalty and postgraduate enrolment decisions under different technological conditions. The findings indicate that improvements in internet facilities, online library support services, laboratory equipment, and overall technological infrastructure increase the probability of students remaining loyal to their institutions. For instance, improved internet facilities increased the transition probability of student loyalty from 0.35 to 0.47 after the first transition period and to 0.51 after the second transition period. The study provides empirical evidence that technological development significantly influences student loyalty and reduces switching behaviour. It concludes that sustained investment in technological infrastructure and digital learning support services can enhance student retention, strengthen institutional stability, and improve the competitive position of private universities. The originality of this study lies in the application of Markov Chain analysis to model student switching behaviour in Nigerian private universities, thereby providing a dynamic framework for predicting student loyalty over time.
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